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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 36.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.02%) and 2-0 (5.99%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
39.06% ( 0.31) | 24.64% ( 0.03) | 36.29% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 59.01% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.97% ( -0.17) | 44.03% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.59% ( -0.17) | 66.41% ( 0.17) |
| Sydney FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.54% ( 0.08) | 22.46% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44% ( 0.12) | 56% ( -0.11) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.1% ( -0.26) | 23.9% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.89% ( -0.38) | 58.11% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.05% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.35% Total : 39.06% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.13% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.37% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.64% | 1-2 @ 8.21% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 7.68% 0-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.05% Total : 36.3% |
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