Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 56.04%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 21.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
