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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 50.93%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 24.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 0-1 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Perth Glory |
50.93% ( 0.28) | 24.16% ( -0.18) | 24.91% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 54.37% ( 0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.69% ( 0.66) | 47.31% ( -0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.47% ( 0.61) | 69.53% ( -0.61) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.41% ( 0.37) | 18.59% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.13% ( 0.61) | 49.87% ( -0.61) |
| Perth Glory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.79% ( 0.27) | 33.21% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.18% ( 0.29) | 69.82% ( -0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Perth Glory |
| 1-0 @ 10.38% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.4% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 4.9% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.27% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.3% Total : 50.92% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 6.17% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 5.31% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.16% | 0-1 @ 6.81% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.75% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.39% Total : 24.91% |
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