Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 45.65%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 29.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 0-1 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
