SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 58.78%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 16.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.81%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Sarmiento |
58.78% ( -0.27) | 24.96% ( 0.02) | 16.26% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 40.01% ( 0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.07% ( 0.28) | 59.93% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.81% ( 0.21) | 80.19% ( -0.21) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.59% ( 0) | 20.42% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.15% ( 0) | 52.85% |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.28% ( 0.52) | 49.72% ( -0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 15.53% ( 0.36) | 84.47% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 16.12% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 12.81% ( -0.13)2-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 6.79% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.74% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.12% Total : 58.77% | 1-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.15% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.41% Total : 24.95% | 0-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.94% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 2.48% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.84% Total : 16.26% |
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