SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 43.92%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 27.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.87%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.11%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
43.92% ( 0.05) | 28.66% ( -0.01) | 27.41% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 43.46% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.56% ( 0.02) | 62.44% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.94% ( 0.02) | 82.06% ( -0.02) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.67% ( 0.04) | 28.32% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.94% ( 0.05) | 64.05% ( -0.05) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.63% ( -0.02) | 39.36% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.93% ( -0.02) | 76.06% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 14.06% 2-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.27% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.73% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.18% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 1.61% Total : 43.92% | 1-1 @ 13.11% 0-0 @ 11.14% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 3.86% ( 0)Other @ 0.54% Total : 28.65% | 0-1 @ 10.39% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.85% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.9% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.51% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.2% Other @ 1.46% Total : 27.41% |
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