SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 25 | Platense | 13 | -10 | 10 |
| 26 | Patronato | 12 | -13 | 10 |
| 27 | Talleres | 13 | -13 | 8 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 22 | Central Cordoba | 12 | -8 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Patronato had a probability of 30.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Patronato win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Patronato | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
30.62% ( 0.19) | 27.62% ( 0.26) | 41.75% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 47.84% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.3% ( -0.9) | 57.7% ( 0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.55% ( -0.72) | 78.45% ( 0.72) |
| Patronato Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.75% ( -0.34) | 34.25% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.06% ( -0.36) | 70.94% ( 0.36) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.76% ( -0.66) | 27.24% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.34% ( -0.87) | 62.67% ( 0.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| Patronato | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 10% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 6.97% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 2.49% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.29% Total : 30.62% | 1-1 @ 13% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 9.33% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.62% | 0-1 @ 12.13% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 7.89% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.67% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 3.42% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.93% Total : 41.75% |
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