Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 45.57%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
