Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 63.25%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Vitebsk had a probability of 15.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.96%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Vitebsk win it was 0-1 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.
