Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 67.35%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 12.08%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.8%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.02) 
