Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 30.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (10.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
