Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 62.74%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 15.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.19%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.37%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
-0.44) 
0.08) 
