Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 42.77%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 29.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (10.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
