Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 75.98%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 8.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.51%) and 1-0 (10.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.32%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (2.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
0.32) 
-0.44) 
