Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Santos had a probability of 29% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (8.28%). The likeliest Santos win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
-0.49) 
0.53) 
