Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.01) 
