Heidenheim have been impressive at home this season, with only a late collapse against Hoffenheim costing them a 100% record after three games, whereas Augsburg have failed to win any of their last 16 away trips in the Bundesliga.
Thorup clearly has a major job on his hands to turn things around in Bavaria, but it may time him some time to do so. As such, we can envisage a narrow home victory for the newly promoted side on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 57.88%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 20.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.61%) and 1-0 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.7%), while for an Augsburg win it was 1-2 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
0.4) 
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