SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Augsburg win with a probability of 37.53%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 37.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Augsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Augsburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Augsburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
37.53% ( 0.06) | 25.4% ( 0.03) | 37.07% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 56.34% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.51% ( -0.14) | 47.49% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.3% ( -0.13) | 69.7% ( 0.14) |
| Augsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.18% ( -0.04) | 24.82% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.6% ( -0.05) | 59.4% ( 0.05) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.93% ( -0.11) | 25.07% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.25% ( -0.16) | 59.75% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Augsburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 1-0 @ 8.67% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.36% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.88% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.98% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 1.82% Total : 37.53% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.4% | 0-1 @ 8.61% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.3% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.95% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.83% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.77% Total : 37.07% |
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