Freiburg have been far from at their best in recent weeks, while Augsburg will arrive with renewed confidence after picking up their first win of the season in their last match.
However, we expect the hosts to edge to a narrow victory in what is likely to be a tight encounter, with Streich and his players knowing that they can not afford their winless streak to continue much longer if they are to have another successful campaign.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 51.79%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 24.68% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 0-1 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
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