Werder Bremen looked wide open defensively against Koln during their 7-1 defeat on Saturday, with only VfL Bochum and Schalke 04 possessing inferior goals against tallies than them so far this season.
While Werner will have worked studiously on the training round in an attempt to tighten things up, these things rarely happen overnight, and we can envisage Union Berlin causing plenty of problems in transition on Wednesday to record successive victories.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 44.57%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 30.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-0 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Union Berlin in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Union Berlin.
-0.75) 
0.03) 
