Gladbach's chances of gaining a positive result in Berlin are undoubtedly boosted by their opponents' involvement in Europe on Thursday, but we can envisage yet another narrow win for the hosts.
Farke's side struggled to create chances against Frankfurt last time out despite dominating possession, and it would be fair to assert that Union Berlin are a much tougher defensive unit to overcome.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 53.46%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 21.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Borussia Monchengladbach win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
1.96) 
-0.09) 
