With both sides in need of a win after a poor run before the break, Union's superb home form may be what gets them over the line here.
With a squad of players so capable in attack, Hoffenheim have the ability to get a result, but their inconsistency means it is impossible to know what to expect from them.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 51.86%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 23.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Hoffenheim win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
-1.27) 
0.21) 
