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Bundesliga | Gameweek 20
Feb 3, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
WB

Mainz
0 - 1
Werder Bremen


Krauss (67'), Amiri (79'), Richter (87'), Caci (88')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ducksch (2')
Stark (35'), Friedl (45'), Bittencourt (88')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Frankfurt 1-0 Mainz
Friday, January 26 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Werder Bremen 3-1 Freiburg
Saturday, January 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen cruised to victory in their last meeting with Mainz, but a tighter affair could be on the cards on Saturday, with the onus being on the hosts to take to game to the visitors as they bid to end their miserable winless run. The two sides have struggled to keep clean sheets this term so there could be plenty of goalmouth action at both ends, but Bremen seem to have the greater threat in the final third and should ultimately find a way to outscore their opponents en route to claiming another three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 51.59%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 24.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 0-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawWerder Bremen
51.59% (1.437 1.44) 23.75% (0.17 0.17) 24.66% (-1.608 -1.61)
Both teams to score 55.48% (-2.195 -2.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.28% (-2.156 -2.16)45.72% (2.157 2.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.96% (-2.085 -2.09)68.04% (2.085 2.09)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.26% (-0.26600000000001 -0.27)17.73% (0.268 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.59% (-0.467 -0.47)48.41% (0.467 0.47)
Werder Bremen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.44% (-2.44 -2.44)32.56% (2.441 2.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.91% (-2.832 -2.83)69.09% (2.833 2.83)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 51.59%
    Werder Bremen 24.66%
    Draw 23.74%
Mainz 05DrawWerder Bremen
1-0 @ 9.99% (0.808 0.81)
2-1 @ 9.69% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
2-0 @ 8.64% (0.629 0.63)
3-1 @ 5.59% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 4.98% (0.322 0.32)
3-2 @ 3.14% (-0.218 -0.22)
4-1 @ 2.42% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.15% (0.121 0.12)
4-2 @ 1.36% (-0.107 -0.11)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 51.59%
1-1 @ 11.2% (0.19 0.19)
0-0 @ 5.77% (0.514 0.51)
2-2 @ 5.44% (-0.329 -0.33)
3-3 @ 1.17% (-0.169 -0.17)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 23.74%
0-1 @ 6.48% (0.167 0.17)
1-2 @ 6.29% (-0.321 -0.32)
0-2 @ 3.64% (-0.153 -0.15)
1-3 @ 2.35% (-0.292 -0.29)
2-3 @ 2.03% (-0.273 -0.27)
0-3 @ 1.36% (-0.155 -0.16)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 24.66%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Frankfurt 1-0 Mainz
Friday, January 26 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Wolfsburg
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Feyenoord 1-2 Mainz
Saturday, January 6 at 11.30am in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Dortmund 1-1 Mainz
Tuesday, December 19 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 0-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, December 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: FC Koln 0-0 Mainz
Sunday, December 10 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Werder Bremen 3-1 Freiburg
Saturday, January 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 0-1 Werder Bremen
Sunday, January 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: VfL Bochum 1-1 Werder Bremen
Sunday, January 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Werder Bremen 1-1 RB Leipzig
Tuesday, December 19 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 2-2 Werder Bremen
Friday, December 15 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Werder Bremen 2-0 Augsburg
Saturday, December 9 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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