After such a lengthy break, Mainz 05 will be looking to get things back on track for the second half of the season, but they face a stern test against a team fighting for the title. Borussia Dortmund are in good form within the league, and as they continue to push Bayern Munich, the squad should be able to secure a victory here in what could be a close contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 46.95%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 29.06% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.37%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
29.06%	23.99%	46.95%

Both teams to score 58.52%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.54%

43.46%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.14%

65.85%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.96%

28.04%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.3%

63.69%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.32%

18.67%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.99%

50.01%

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 29.06%

Borussia Dortmund 46.95%

Draw 23.98%

Mainz 05	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 7.1% 1-0 @ 6.66% 2-0 @ 4.23% 3-1 @ 3.01% 3-2 @ 2.53% 3-0 @ 1.79% 4-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.77% Total : 29.06%	1-1 @ 11.17% 2-2 @ 5.96% 0-0 @ 5.24% 3-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.98%	1-2 @ 9.37% 0-1 @ 8.79% 0-2 @ 7.37% 1-3 @ 5.24% 0-3 @ 4.12% 2-3 @ 3.33% 1-4 @ 2.2% 0-4 @ 1.73% 2-4 @ 1.4% Other @ 3.39% Total : 46.95%