The visitors might be a team that a lot of fans have high expectations of this season, but so far it has been a tough campaign for Bayer Leverkusen, and they head into this one with low confidence.
That is the opposite for Mainz, particularly when it comes to games at home, which is why they will walk into this one as the firm favourites.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 37.99%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 36.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (8.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
