Both of these sides will fancy their chances of winning on Wednesday night, but it is very difficult to back Atletico to lose at Wanda Metropolitano in any game against any opposition. It would not be a surprise to see a home victory, but we have a feeling that Porto could pick up a welcome point here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 39.25%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 34.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
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