SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Braga | 5 | 15 | 13 |
| 3 | Porto | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Portimonense | 5 | 5 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 39.25%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 34.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Porto |
34.44% ( -0.08) | 26.31% ( -0) | 39.25% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 52.99% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.33% ( 0.01) | 51.67% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.55% ( 0) | 73.45% ( -0.01) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.41% ( -0.04) | 28.59% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.61% ( -0.05) | 64.39% ( 0.05) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.2% ( 0.04) | 25.8% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.25% ( 0.06) | 60.75% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 9.24% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.83% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.78% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.27% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 2.67% Total : 34.44% | 1-1 @ 12.51% 0-0 @ 7.38% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.31% ( 0)3-3 @ 1% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.31% | 0-1 @ 9.99% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.48% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.77% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.83% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.06% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.3% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.4% Total : 39.25% |
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