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Champions League | League Stage
Nov 5, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
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Real Madrid
1 - 3
AC Milan

Junior (23' pen.)
Camavinga (58'), Vazquez (68'), Militao (68'), Junior (71')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Thiaw (12'), Morata (39'), Reijnders (73')
Morata (21'), Fofana (85')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Monza 0-1 AC Milan
Saturday, November 2 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 52.08%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 25.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.

Result
Real MadridDrawAC Milan
52.08% (0.672 0.67) 22.1% (-0.179 -0.18) 25.82% (-0.491 -0.49)
Both teams to score 62.45% (0.151 0.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.93% (0.412 0.41)37.07% (-0.409 -0.41)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.74% (0.442 0.44)59.26% (-0.438 -0.44)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.57% (0.36799999999999 0.37)14.43% (-0.365 -0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.64% (0.704 0.7)42.36% (-0.701 -0.7)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.98% (-0.136 -0.14)27.02% (0.139 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.62% (-0.179 -0.18)62.38% (0.181 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Real Madrid 52.08%
    AC Milan 25.82%
    Draw 22.1%
Real MadridDrawAC Milan
2-1 @ 9.56% (0.022 0.02)
1-0 @ 7.55% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-0 @ 7.31% (0.045000000000001 0.05)
3-1 @ 6.17% (0.093 0.09)
3-0 @ 4.72% (0.09 0.09)
3-2 @ 4.04% (0.045 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.99% (0.084 0.08)
4-0 @ 2.28% (0.072 0.07)
4-2 @ 1.95% (0.047 0.05)
5-1 @ 1.16% (0.046 0.05)
Other @ 4.37%
Total : 52.08%
1-1 @ 9.88% (-0.107 -0.11)
2-2 @ 6.26% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.9% (-0.079 -0.08)
3-3 @ 1.76% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 22.1%
1-2 @ 6.46% (-0.096 -0.1)
0-1 @ 5.1% (-0.123 -0.12)
0-2 @ 3.34% (-0.094 -0.09)
1-3 @ 2.82% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.73% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.46% (-0.046 -0.05)
1-4 @ 0.92% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 3%
Total : 25.82%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Real Madrid 0-4 Barcelona
Saturday, October 26 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 5-2 Dortmund
Tuesday, October 22 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid
Saturday, October 19 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal
Saturday, October 5 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Lille 1-0 Real Madrid
Wednesday, October 2 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Atletico 1-1 Real Madrid
Sunday, September 29 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Monza 0-1 AC Milan
Saturday, November 2 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 0-2 Napoli
Tuesday, October 29 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 3-1 Brugge
Tuesday, October 22 at 5.45pm in Champions League
Last Game: AC Milan 1-0 Udinese
Saturday, October 19 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Fiorentina 2-1 AC Milan
Sunday, October 6 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 1-0 AC Milan
Tuesday, October 1 at 8pm in Champions League


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