SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 42.53%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 33.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.42%) and 0-2 (6.14%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-1 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Bayern Munich |
33.76% ( 0) | 23.71% ( 0.01) | 42.53% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 61.9% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.96% ( -0.02) | 40.04% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.59% ( -0.02) | 62.41% ( 0.03) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.55% ( -0.01) | 23.45% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.54% ( -0.01) | 57.46% ( 0.02) |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.86% ( -0.01) | 19.14% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.21% ( -0.02) | 50.79% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Bayern Munich |
| 2-1 @ 7.81% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.72% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.77% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.12% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.28% 4-1 @ 1.37% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0)Other @ 3.05% Total : 33.76% | 1-1 @ 10.76% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.45% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.72% ( -0)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.71% | 1-2 @ 8.9% 0-1 @ 7.42% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.14% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.9% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.56% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.38% 1-4 @ 2.03% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.47% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.4% ( -0)Other @ 3.35% Total : 42.53% |
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