Birmingham have done superbly to commence their campaign with 10 points from a possible 12, but we feel that Blues' luck in terms of last-minute winners is set to run out this weekend.
Millwall will happily concede possession to the hosts at St Andrew's on Saturday - a tactic which often works well against a Birmingham side who like to hit opponents on the counter-attack.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 39.72%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.05%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
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