Middlesbrough
4 - 1
Derby

Buchanan (15' og.), Connolly (44'), Crooks (45+3'), Watmore (89')
Tavernier (27'), Crooks (31'), Howson (50')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Bird (39')
Lawrence (27'), Ebiowei (87'), (88')

Preview

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Middlesbrough and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby County

While Derby are on a high, facing Middlesbrough at the Riverside Stadium represents one of the toughest tasks in the division. With that in mind, we are backing the home side to edge this contest by the odd goal in three. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 56.38%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 18.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.65%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.

Result
Middlesbrough	Draw	Derby County
56.38%	25.03%	18.59%

Both teams to score 43.7%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.75%

57.26%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.9%

78.1%

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.7%

20.3%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.33%

52.67%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.82%

45.18%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.93%

81.08%

Score Analysis

Middlesbrough 56.37%

Derby County 18.59%

Draw 25.03%

Middlesbrough	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 14.62% 2-0 @ 11.65% 2-1 @ 9.26% 3-0 @ 6.2% 3-1 @ 4.92% 4-0 @ 2.47% 4-1 @ 1.96% 3-2 @ 1.96% Other @ 3.32% Total : 56.37%	1-1 @ 11.62% 0-0 @ 9.17% 2-2 @ 3.68% Other @ 0.56% Total : 25.03%	0-1 @ 7.29% 1-2 @ 4.62% 0-2 @ 2.9% 1-3 @ 1.22% 2-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.59% Total : 18.59%