SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 37.84%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 36.15% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (9.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portsmouth | Draw | Stoke City |
37.84% ( 0.93) | 26.01% ( 0.03) | 36.15% ( -0.95) |
| Both teams to score 54.18% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.77% ( -0.15) | 50.22% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.81% ( -0.14) | 72.18% ( 0.13) |
| Portsmouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.09% ( 0.45) | 25.91% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.1% ( 0.6) | 60.9% ( -0.6) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.13% ( -0.62) | 26.87% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.82% ( -0.82) | 62.18% ( 0.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portsmouth | Draw | Stoke City |
| 1-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 8.34% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.43% Total : 37.84% | 1-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 26% | 0-1 @ 9.15% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 8.12% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.18)1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.11% Total : 36.15% |
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