SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queens Park Rangers win with a probability of 45.89%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 27.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queens Park Rangers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Queens Park Rangers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Queens Park Rangers | Draw | Derby County |
45.89% ( -0.29) | 26.31% ( 0.04) | 27.8% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 50.19% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.03% ( 0.01) | 53.97% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.59% ( 0.01) | 75.41% ( -0) |
| Queens Park Rangers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.53% ( -0.13) | 23.47% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.52% ( -0.2) | 57.48% ( 0.2) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.57% ( 0.21) | 34.42% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.86% ( 0.22) | 71.13% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Queens Park Rangers | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 11.7% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.33% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.77% Total : 45.89% | 1-1 @ 12.48% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.08% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.83% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.3% | 0-1 @ 8.61% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 6.66% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 4.59% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.22% Total : 27.8% |
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