SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 72.69%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Shenzhen had a probability of 10.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.43%) and 3-0 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8%), while for a Shenzhen win it was 0-1 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shenzhen |
72.69% ( 0.33) | 16.85% ( -0.3) | 10.46% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 48.42% ( 0.98) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.16% ( 1.34) | 39.83% ( -1.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.81% ( 1.38) | 62.19% ( -1.38) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.42% ( 0.42) | 9.57% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.97% ( 0.99) | 32.03% ( -1) |
| Shenzhen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.55% ( 0.83) | 46.45% ( -0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.93% ( 0.63) | 82.07% ( -0.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shenzhen |
| 2-0 @ 12.23% ( -0.3) 1-0 @ 10.43% ( -0.45)3-0 @ 9.57% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 9.39% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.13)4-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.12)5-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.1)6-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.65% Total : 72.68% | 1-1 @ 8% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 4.45% ( -0.28)2-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.81% Total : 16.85% | 0-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.75% Total : 10.46% |
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