SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Changchun Yatai win with a probability of 54.22%. A win for Guangzhou had a probability of 22.98% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Changchun Yatai win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.54%) and 0-2 (8.78%). The likeliest Guangzhou win was 2-1 (5.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Changchun Yatai would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guangzhou | Draw | Changchun Yatai |
22.98% ( 0.47) | 22.8% ( 0.29) | 54.22% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 56.66% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.77% ( -0.78) | 43.23% ( 0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.37% ( -0.78) | 65.63% ( 0.77) |
| Guangzhou Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.36% ( -0.02) | 32.64% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.81% ( -0.02) | 69.19% ( 0.02) |
| Changchun Yatai Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.12% ( -0.53) | 15.88% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.9% ( -0.99) | 45.1% ( 0.98) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guangzhou | Draw | Changchun Yatai |
| 2-1 @ 5.98% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.19)2-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 2.23% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.45% Total : 22.98% | 1-1 @ 10.67% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.18% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.79% | 1-2 @ 9.83% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 8.78% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 6.03% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 5.38% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 2.77% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 2.48% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.06)1-5 @ 1.02% ( -0.06)0-5 @ 0.91% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.57% Total : 54.22% |
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