SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Port win with a probability of 81.91%. A draw had a probability of 12.1% and a win for Shenzhen had a probability of 5.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Port win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.73%) and 0-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.77%), while for a Shenzhen win it was 1-0 (2.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Shanghai Port would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Shenzhen | Draw | Shanghai Port |
5.95% ( 0.53) | 12.15% ( 0.91) | 81.91% ( -1.43) |
| Both teams to score 44.32% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.64% ( -2.36) | 33.36% ( 2.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.86% ( -2.75) | 55.14% ( 2.75) |
| Shenzhen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.21% ( -0.09) | 52.79% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.49% ( -0.05) | 86.51% ( 0.06) |
| Shanghai Port Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.88% ( -0.72) | 6.12% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 76.77% ( -2.06) | 23.23% ( 2.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shenzhen | Draw | Shanghai Port |
| 1-0 @ 2.07% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.04% Total : 5.95% | 1-1 @ 5.77% ( 0.45) 0-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.39)2-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.57% Total : 12.15% | 0-2 @ 12.6% ( 0.48) 0-3 @ 11.73% ( -0.06)0-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.72)0-4 @ 8.2% ( -0.41)1-2 @ 8.06% ( 0.29)1-3 @ 7.5% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 5.24% ( -0.27)0-5 @ 4.58% ( -0.44)1-5 @ 2.93% ( -0.29)2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.02)0-6 @ 2.13% ( -0.31)2-4 @ 1.67% ( -0.09)1-6 @ 1.36% ( -0.2)2-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.54% Total : 81.89% |
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