Fatigue seems to have taken a toll on each team, though Estudiantes have been at their best at home, which should be just enough to see them through to the quarter-finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 59.84%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 18.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.

Result
Estudiantes	Draw	Fortaleza
59.84% ( 0.01)	22.05% ( 0.01)	18.1% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 51.44% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.56% (

-0.07)

46.44% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.27% (

-0.07)

68.72% (

0.07)

Estudiantes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.88% (

-0.02)

15.11% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.33% (

-0.04)

43.67% (

0.04)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.6% (

-0.07)

39.39% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.91% (

-0.06)

76.09% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Estudiantes 59.83%

Fortaleza 18.1%

Draw 22.05%

Estudiantes	Draw	Fortaleza
1-0 @ 11.25% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.24% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.16% 4-1 @ 2.95% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.2% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 2.43% Total : 59.83%	1-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.05%	0-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.58% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.52% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.15% Total : 18.1%