Having come through their league fixture against San Lorenzo (3-2 win) unscathed despite resting several starters, a fresher Boca side should continue their unbeaten run by avoiding defeat in Belo Horizonte to progress to the competition's last eight at Cruzeiro's expense.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 25.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.26%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Boca Juniors win it was 0-1 (9.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.
-0.04) 
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