SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 58.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Emelec had a probability of 18.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Emelec win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Defensa y Justicia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Emelec |
58.34% ( -1.4) | 23.51% ( 0.61) | 18.15% ( 0.79) |
| Both teams to score 47.13% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.74% ( -1.23) | 52.26% ( 1.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.04% ( -1.07) | 73.96% ( 1.07) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.34% ( -0.94) | 17.66% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.72% ( -1.65) | 48.28% ( 1.65) |
| Emelec Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.24% ( 0.23) | 42.76% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.91% ( 0.2) | 79.09% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Emelec |
| 1-0 @ 13.09% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 11.35% ( -0.14)2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.29)3-1 @ 5.57% ( -0.21)4-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.22)4-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.48% Total : 58.34% | 1-1 @ 11.12% ( 0.27) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.36)2-2 @ 4.1% Other @ 0.74% Total : 23.5% | 0-1 @ 6.42% ( 0.35) 1-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.78% Total : 18.15% |
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