SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 29.34% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
42.36% ( -0.02) | 28.3% ( 0.01) | 29.34% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 45.41% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.5% ( -0.02) | 60.5% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.38% ( -0.02) | 80.62% ( 0.02) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.76% ( -0.02) | 28.24% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.06% ( -0.03) | 63.94% ( 0.03) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.28% ( -0) | 36.72% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.49% ( -0) | 73.51% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 13.11% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.31% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.29% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.5% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.5% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.75% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.11% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0)Other @ 1.69% Total : 42.36% | 1-1 @ 13.13% 0-0 @ 10.36% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.16% ( -0)Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.28% | 0-1 @ 10.38% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.58% 0-2 @ 5.2% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.2% 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0)Other @ 1.85% Total : 29.33% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
