Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 48.29%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 24.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
