Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 50.51%. A win for Dordrecht had a probability of 27.63% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.7%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Dordrecht win was 2-1 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
