Groningen have experienced a major drop-off in recent weeks, losing seven of their last eight matches, while failing to score in four of their last five, including in two of their last three games on their home patch.
Willem II, meanwhile, are gunning a third match unbeaten after a morale-boosting comeback against NAC Breda last week, and we feel they will be able to edge the hosts to a narrow victory in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 51.66%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 23.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
0.16) 
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