This should be another comfortable victory for Basel, who will hope to keep 11 men on the pitch this time around. Frei is unlikely to demand too much exertion from his players providing they get an early goal to kill off the tie, so do not expect them to rack up the goals unless Crusaders throw the towel in. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 39.44%. A win for Crusaders had a probability of 33.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Crusaders win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.

Result
Crusaders	Draw	Basel
33.32% ( 0.03)	27.24%	39.44% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 49.82% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.41% (

0.01)

55.6% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.24% (

0.01)

76.76% (

-0.01)

Crusaders Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.74% (

0.03)

31.27% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.39% (

0.03)

67.62% (

-0.03)

Basel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.48% (

-0.01)

27.52% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.97% (

-0.01)

63.03% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Crusaders 33.32%

Basel 39.44%

Draw 27.23%

Crusaders	Draw	Basel
1-0 @ 10% 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.82% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.25% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 0) Other @ 2.96% Total : 33.32%	1-1 @ 12.9% 0-0 @ 8.61% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.23%	0-1 @ 11.1% 1-2 @ 8.33% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.16% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.58% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.08% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.08% 1-4 @ 1.16% ( -0) 0-4 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 1.96% Total : 39.44%