SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Luzern | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Basel | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Lugano | 8 | -1 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FK Zalgiris win with a probability of 42.44%. A win for Basel had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a FK Zalgiris win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Basel win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| FK Zalgiris | Draw | Basel |
42.44% ( -0.03) | 25.68% ( 0.01) | 31.87% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 54.32% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.37% ( -0.02) | 49.63% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.35% ( -0.02) | 71.65% ( 0.02) |
| FK Zalgiris Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.76% ( -0.02) | 23.24% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.84% ( -0.04) | 57.15% ( 0.04) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.76% ( 0.01) | 29.23% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.81% ( 0.01) | 65.19% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| FK Zalgiris | Draw | Basel |
| 1-0 @ 9.91% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.9% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.23% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.52% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.66% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.28% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 2.06% Total : 42.44% | 1-1 @ 12.19% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.79% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.47% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.68% | 0-1 @ 8.36% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.5% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.07% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.24% 0-3 @ 2.11% ( 0)1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 2.52% Total : 31.88% |
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