SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 35.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Legia Warsaw would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Legia Warsaw | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
39.56% ( -0.1) | 24.61% ( 0.02) | 35.83% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 59.06% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.06% ( -0.09) | 43.94% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.68% ( -0.09) | 66.32% ( 0.09) |
| Legia Warsaw Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.83% ( -0.09) | 22.17% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.43% ( -0.14) | 55.58% ( 0.14) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.89% ( 0) | 24.11% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.59% ( 0) | 58.41% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Legia Warsaw | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 8.63% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.05% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.05% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.42% Total : 39.56% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.61% | 1-2 @ 8.15% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.61% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.86% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.57% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.37% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.04% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 2.01% Total : 35.83% |
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