Atalanta's worst run over a period of 14 league matches since 2016 has been brought about by a declining goal rate in 2022; scoring at just over one per game, their best attacking displays have been saved for Europe. However, Leipzig's was the Bundesliga's best defence last season, and they are second only to Bayern during the current campaign in that regard. They can edge this contest, then, by holding firm for the most part and striking surgically on the break. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 34.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.27%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 2-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	RB Leipzig
34.98%	24.73%	40.29%

Both teams to score 58.48%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.38%

44.62%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.01%

66.99%

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.09%

24.91%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.47%

59.53%

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.88%

22.12%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.51%

55.49%

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 34.98%

RB Leipzig 40.29%

Draw 24.73%

Atalanta BC	Draw	RB Leipzig
2-1 @ 8.03% 1-0 @ 7.66% 2-0 @ 5.32% 3-1 @ 3.72% 3-2 @ 2.81% 3-0 @ 2.47% 4-1 @ 1.29% 4-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.71% Total : 34.98%	1-1 @ 11.55% 2-2 @ 6.06% 0-0 @ 5.51% 3-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.73%	1-2 @ 8.72% 0-1 @ 8.31% 0-2 @ 6.27% 1-3 @ 4.38% 0-3 @ 3.15% 2-3 @ 3.05% 1-4 @ 1.65% 0-4 @ 1.19% 2-4 @ 1.15% Other @ 2.41% Total : 40.29%