While Leipzig have accumulated 26 Bundesliga points since the turn of the year - more than any other team in the division - Atalanta have managed only three wins during their last 13 league matches.
The Bergamo club have struggled to score with their previous ease, but with 18 different players having found the net for them in Serie A this season they can still spring a surprise - particularly being more comfortable on away soil than at home.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 36.88%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 35.08% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-0 (11.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
