Notts County will be desperate to return to winning ways after a hard-to-take loss against rivals Wrexham last time out, and we can see the Magpies progressing into the second round quite comfortably.
Crawley are enduring a rocky run of form of late and are likely to exit this year's FA Cup at the first hurdle on Saturday afternoon at Meadow Lane.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 48.31%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.01%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-2 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
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