SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Chelsea |
34.48% ( 0.05) | 24.9% ( 0.02) | 40.62% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 57.78% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.5% ( -0.06) | 45.5% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.17% ( -0.05) | 67.83% ( 0.06) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.39% ( 0) | 25.61% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.51% ( 0) | 60.49% |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.66% ( -0.05) | 22.34% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.18% ( -0.08) | 55.82% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.61% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.71% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.23% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 2.54% Total : 34.48% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.72% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.9% | 1-2 @ 8.75% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.43% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.37% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.21% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.2% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0)Other @ 2.34% Total : 40.62% |
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