SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 52.51%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 26.77% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.46%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Chelsea |
52.51% ( -0.29) | 20.72% ( 0.02) | 26.77% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 68.66% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.62% ( 0.13) | 29.38% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.56% ( 0.16) | 50.44% ( -0.17) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.35% ( -0.04) | 11.65% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.31% ( -0.07) | 36.69% ( 0.07) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.71% ( 0.24) | 22.29% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.25% ( 0.36) | 55.75% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 9.01% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 6% ( -0.06)1-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.3% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.61% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.12% 5-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.02% Total : 52.51% | 1-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.76% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.56% Total : 20.72% | 1-2 @ 6.29% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 3.9% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.38% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.15% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.02)3-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.31% Total : 26.77% |
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